WSJ/NBC News Poll shows no late shift in swing state voters.
Support for President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden in a group of battleground states has remained unchanged in recent days, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, finding little evidence of the kind of last-minute shift toward Mr. Trump that helped him win four years ago.
American Associate for Public Opinion Research determined that 2016 election was decided the week before election day when voters in Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin shifted their vote.
In the 2016 election, many pollsters missed the 11th-hour shift among undecided voters toward Mr. Trump, a trend that helped him win the election. The American Association for Public Opinion Research found that about 13% of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania decided on their candidate in the week before the last election. Those voters supported Mr. Trump by nearly 30 percentage points in Wisconsin and by 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania, helping to deliver narrow victories, the group found.
Not a lot of undecideds this election to persuade.
And most voters’ opinions are set in stone. Only 1% of Trump supporters and 1% of Biden supporters in the swing states said there was a fair chance they would change their minds and support the other candidate, a rock-bottom figure that echoes previous polls.
Trump not performing as well as Biden among Catholics.
The poll indicated that Mr. Biden’s support among Catholics has dropped. Messrs. Biden and Trump are polling evenly among Catholic swing state voters, at 49% each. In the Journal/NBC News poll conducted from Oct. 29-31, Mr. Biden was ahead by 3 percentage points among that group. Mr. Biden is Catholic.